Greenhouse Effect
Jennifer A. Dunne, ... John Harte, in Encyclopedia of Biodiversity [Second Edition], 2013
Conclusions
The enhanced greenhouse effect, in conjunction with other anthropogenic stresses, is likely to precipitate unprecedented changes to Earth's climate and ecosystems. Though the details of how climate change will affect biodiversity are often hard to predict, there is little doubt that biological impacts will be pervasive and often dramatic. Studying the effects of climate change on biota can help in the formulation of strategies for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem structure and function in the face of potentially massive change and loss. Such knowledge is also crucial for refining predictions of the future rate and magnitude of climate change, since biological responses are likely to produce significant feedbacks that can augment or dampen climate change at local, regional, and global scales. Understanding and addressing the interactions between climate change and biodiversity represents one of the greatest challenges that scientists and policymakers face in the twenty-first century.
Impact of Past Global Warming on Biodiversity
Gregory J. Retallack, in Encyclopedia of Biodiversity [Second Edition], 2007
Conclusions
Anthropogenic global warming due to atmospheric pollution by CO2 and CH4 is commonly regarded as unprecedented, but the rock and fossil record indicates many comparable past atmospheric redox crises. Commonalities among these past events allow a better understanding of global warming induced by greenhouse gases. Biodiversity generally declined during geologically rapid global warmings due to CO2 and CH4 emissions from volcanic eruption and intrusion, meteorite impacts, or outbursts from submarine and permafrost methane clathrates. Extreme cases of greenhouse release to the atmosphere are the great mass extinctions of the fossil record, when many creatures died from the effects of hypoxia, hypercapnia, and pulmonary edema. At lower levels of greenhouse gases, such lethal effects were limited in area to high altitudes, stagnant wetlands, oligotrophic coral reefs, and deep ocean basins. Some consequences of global warming such as increased precipitation and warmth extending to high-latitude intercontinental land bridges had the effects of increasing biodiversity. Hardships such as soil acidification and increased seasonality of climate selected for sclerophyllous, thickly cutinized plants. Hardships such as hypoxia selected for greater respiratory scope in animals. Such adaptations added to biodiversity. The effects on biodiversity of global warming by greenhouse gases are complex, but a rich fossil and rock record of comparable events in the past promises new perspectives on future global warming.
The Complex Dyanmics of the Climate System
Carolyn W. Snyder, ... Stephen H. Schneider, in Philosophy of Complex Systems, 2011
4.2. North Atlantic Thermohaline Ocean Circulation
Abrupt change in the North Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation [THC] is the most dramatic example in the climate system of multiple equilibria and thresholds that are duration and path dependent. Paleoclimate evidence of past abrupt changes in the North Atlantic THC revolutionized the field and changed the paradigm from gradual simple systems to abrupt complex systems. Moreover, the North Atlantic THC is of particular interest because it might be significantly altered due to global warming, causing large impacts to the world. Computational models have been useful tools in exploring potential complex system dynamics of the North Atlantic THC. However, our understanding of and ability to model the North Atlantic THC continues to be limited by the complexity of the system.
The thermohaline ocean circulation [THC] is a density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused by differences in temperature and salinity, see Figure 5. In the North Atlantic, the THC brings warm tropical water northward, raising sea surface temperatures about 4oC relative to temperatures at comparable latitudes in the Pacific Ocean [Higgins et al., 2002]. The warmer waters of the North Atlantic warm and moisten the atmosphere, making Greenland and Western Europe roughly 5-8oC warmer than they otherwise would be and increasing precipitation throughout the region [Stocker and Marchal, 2000; Broecker, 1997]. The THC is density-driven: warm, salty water flows into the North Atlantic, becomes more dense as it cools, and then sinks and flows to the southern hemisphere via the deep western boundary current, creating a "conveyor belt" of fast moving seawater [Rahmstorf, 2006; Broecker et al., 1990]. Disruption of the density gradient through surface freshening or surface warming could cause a failure of sinking in the North Atlantic that would cause the North Atlantic THC to slow or even stop [Broecker, 1997]. The convective mixing process also is a self-sustaining, but highly nonlinear, process [von Deimling et al., 2006]. There is strong evidence that the North Atlantic THC slowed or completely stopped in the Earth's history, causing rapid regional and global climatic changes [Broecker, 1997; Bond et al., 1997; Rahmstorf, 2000b].
Figure 5. Schematic representation of the global thermohaline ocean circulation [THC]. Surface currents are shown in red, deep waters in light blue and bottom waters in dark blue. The main deep-water formation sites are shown in orange. Average ocean salinity is 35 [represents "parts per thousand"]. The color-coding for water above 36 and below 34 indicates water significantly different from average. From [Rahmstorf, 2006, Figure 1].
Paleoclimate reconstructions and model simulations suggest that there are multiple equilibria for the THC in the North Atlantic: rapid and repeated switching between equilibria over a period of years to decades is associated with dramatic changes in regional, and potentially global, climate [Alley et al., 2003]. These multiple equilibria constitute an emergent property of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Henry Stommel was the first to describe the bi-stability of the North Atlantic THC system, using only a simple two-box model of the ocean [Stommel, 1961]. Figure 6 presents a summary of the three possible North Atlantic THC equilibrium states and the theoretical mechanisms for switching between them. In addition, the model predicts response hysteresis in which an earlier transition due to fresh water forcing [arrows "a" or "b"] results in a system requiring a larger stimulus to return to its previous state [arrow "d"]. A recent intercomparison of 11 different climate models of intermediate complexity found that all models show this North Atlantic THC hysteresis response to freshwater forcing [Rahmstorf et al., 2005]. Both the total amount of freshwater forcing and the rate of forcing are important, because they can determine which of the opposing feedbacks stabilization from local cooling and destabilization from reduced saltwater input will dominate, and thus whether a rapid change will occur. Model experiments also find importance for the duration and location of freshwater inputs, in addition to the rate and magnitude of changes in freshwater [Rahmstorf, 2000b].
Figure 6. Schematic stability diagram for the North Atlantic Thermohaline Ocean Circulation [THC], with solid black lines indicating stable equilibrium states and dotted black lines unstable states. The rate of ocean flow is measured in Sverdrups [Sv]: a flow rate of one Sv = one million cubic meters per second. The x-axis shows the amount of freshwater forcing in Sv relative to present. The y-axis shows the strength of the North Atlantic Deep Water [NADW] formation, also in Sv. Transitions are indicated by arrows: [a] advective spindown, [b] convective shutdown, [c] transition between different convection patterns, and [d] restart of convection. "S" marks the Stommel bifurcation beyond which no North Atlantic Deep Water [NADW] formation can be sustained. Adapted from [Rahmstorf, 2000a, Figure 2].
Global warming from anthropogenic GHG emissions could potentially impact the North Atlantic THC due to changes in temperature, precipitation, melt water, and circulation patterns. The existence of abrupt past climate changes from changes in the North Atlantic THC has fuelled concern over the possibility of setting off similar changes in the future. Models vary in their predictions of the weakening or shutdown of the North Atlantic THC with future anthropogenic climate change [Solomon et al., 2007]. Disagreement between models on the proximity of the present-day climate to the Stommel bifurcation point2 and on the relative strengths of various feedback processes makes it difficult to compare model results. It is often unclear what model features are causing some models to not produce North Atlantic THC collapse when other models are [Schneider, 2004]. These model disagreements make it difficult to assign confident probabilities to the occurrence of a North Atlantic THC collapse and impossible to rule out global warming-induced North Atlantic THC collapse at a high level of confidence [Rahmstorf et al., 2005; Schneider and Thompson, 2000]. Models do agree that the future of the North Atlantic THC is dependent upon which mode it currently is in and the amount and rate of change to the system both from warming and from freshwater increases that result from global warming [Stocker and Schmittner, 1997; Stocker and Marchal, 2000; Higgins et al., 2002].
Climate Change: Cooperation and Human Security
Gwen Sullivan, in Encyclopedia of Violence, Peace, & Conflict [Second Edition], 2008
Part One: Human Hand in Global Warming
Main Sources
Global warming refers to a trend of rising temperatures both at the Earths surface and in the lower atmosphere. As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere, these gases trap the Earths heat and thereby cause temperatures to rise. The burning of fossil fuels [oil, coal, and natural gas] accounts for about three-fourths of global carbon emissions. Deforestation is the second main source, representing at least 20% of all carbon emissions. The clearing and burning of forests releases carbon stored in trees into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide [CO2]. Forests have historically absorbed a large portion of carbon emissions as plants photosynthesize water and carbon dioxide into plant growth, thereby slowing the rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere. Deforestation eliminates these carbon sinks, further accelerating global warming.
Four main sectors are responsible for the bulk of carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels: electricity generation, transportation, industrial processes, and residential and commercial buildings. Agriculture and forestry management also influence the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere.
The US and Europe accounted for the major part of the atmospheric buildup of heat-trapping emissions over the last century. In recent times, Europe has taken the lead in curtailing carbon emissions. With 5% of the worlds population, the United States represented 21% of annual global carbon emissions in 2005. Fast-growing economies such as China and India are expected to represent a growing share of global emissions in the upcoming years. In 2005, China was already the second major carbon emitter, representing 18% of the global total.
In 2006, China surpassed the United States in recorded annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, though these figures do not include heat-trapping emissions from other sources. Taking into account its large population, Chinas per capita emissions are at about a quarter of that in the United States.
Meanwhile, Africa represents less than 3% of global CO2 emissions from fuel burning since 1900. While contributing least to the problem, Africa will suffer some of the most severe consequences of global warming. Equity issues remain at the core of negotiations around the global response to climate change, as discussed further in Part two.
Scientific Consensus on Global Warming and Evolving Political Debates
Since its founding in 1988, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] has tracked scientific understanding of the causes and consequences of global warming, issuing comprehensive assessments about every 5 years. Comprised of a worldwide network of scientists, the IPCC is the main authoritative source on this topic. The IPCC issued its fourth assessment in 2007, which consisted of three reports on [1] the state of climate change science; [2] expected impacts of climate change at different degrees of warming; and [3] options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit temperature increases.
In February 2007, the IPCC reported a 90% likelihood that man-made emissions, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, have caused most global warming since 1950. The significance of this finding becomes more apparent in the light of earlier reports:
1990: The IPCC reported that there was evidence of global warming, but its causes could be natural or human.
1995: The panel concluded that the balance of evidence pointed to a discernible human influence on global climate.
2001: The scientists reached consensus on a likely probability [6690%] that human activity caused most of the warming since 1950.
The IPCC has thus moved gradually toward greater degrees of scientific certainty over the role of human activity in global warming.
Political debates have tended to follow scientific findings, albeit with considerable lag. Until recently, powerful political sectors in the United States and elsewhere still disputed whether global warming was occurring and whether human activity played a role in causing it. Politicians who disputed findings of human-induced climate change drew on a small minority of scientists to support their views. For several years, media coverage continued to give equal weight to both sides of the dispute, even after the vast majority of scientists had concluded that global warming was indeed a fact. This reporting provides a classic case where balancing a story by being fair to both sides may not be fair to the truth, if both sides do not in fact have equal weight [Kovack and Rosenstiel, 2001: 46].
Today, scientific consensus on the extent of human-induced global warming has brought climate change to the center stage of political debates and forums across countries, while changing the terms of discussion. Debate now centers around what actions and policies to adopt. Who is responsible for curbing emissions? Will governments and citizens have the political will to bring about the necessary changes across society? And who will pay the bill both for shifting to cleaner technologies and for adapting to climate change already underway? These questions are now central to political debates in local, national, and international arenas.
Climate change experts contributed to these debates by issuing a detailed plan to halt climate change in the IPCC report issued in May 2007. The plan called on countries to shift from a dependence on fossil fuels to a greater reliance on renewable energy, nuclear power, and biofuels. It also recommended adoption of carbon capture and storage [CCS] technology, which captures carbon dioxide from power stations and stores it underground. Recommendations regarding biofuels and nuclear power have generated considerable controversy.
The IPCC report also looked at ways to improve energy efficiency in vehicles, industry, and buildings; to save forests as carbon sinks; and to cap agricultural emissions, among other measures. It detailed the most promising technologies for reducing emissions and estimated the costs involved in shifting to them if the world began to act immediately. It also looked at policies such as taxes or quotas on carbon emissions that could encourage the development of these technologies.
The scientists concluded that the world already had the necessary technology and financial resources to reduce global carbon emissions and thereby avert devastating global warming. The time for action is now. In 2007, the IPCC warned the international community that it could have as little as 8 years to prevent a global average temperature rise of above 2°C, the threshold at which the most severe consequences were projected to occur. With this assessment, the scientists shifted responsibility to governments and citizens, who would decide what actions to take in light of the projected impacts of unmitigated climate change.
Environmental Sciences
Chunglin Kwa, in International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences [Second Edition], 2015
Climate Skepticism
Global warming as a policy issue made its breakthrough in 1988, when James Hansen, the Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, delivered a famous testimony before a Committee of the American Congress. Presidential Candidate George H. Bush promised to counter the Greenhouse effect by the White House effect. A year later, physicist William Nierenberg requested and received permission to present at the White House an unpublished report of the George C. Marshall Foundation [of which he wasa cofounder], in which naturally fluctuating sun spots were identified as the sole cause of global warming and the link between global warming and human use of fossil fuels was denied [Oreskes and Conway, 2010]. From then on, and in marked contrast with the European Union, the US government would refrain from policies to bring down carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere.
Frederick Seitz, another cofounder of the Marshall Institute, in a first-page article of the Wall Street Journal in 1996, accused the IPCC of fraud. The immediate target was a study by climate scientist Ben Santer, published in the IPCC's Second Assessment Report [1995]. Santer had identified a human fingerprint in the warming of the atmosphere, a particular aspect that could not be explained by the sun's activity but which could be explained by the raised level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to Seitz, the IPCC had not followed its own rules of peer-reviewed check before publishing Santer's study. The IPCC had in fact conducted such a check, although it has since sharpened its procedures. Santer's finding still stands, although at the time the damage to the IPCC and Santer personally was considerable.
From an overview of the interventions in the policy arena by Nierenberg, Seitz, and some fellow climate skeptics such as Fred Singer, it has been found that their denial of a human influence on global warming is connected with a broader agenda. Enjoying considerable influence as elder statesmen of science, they have also made their mark by casting doubt on thedeleterious effects of acid rain and the damaging effects ofchlorofluorocarbons on the ozone layer, and they also denied the effects on health of passive smoking. The common denominator is that they opposed all governmental environmental regulation, in line with economic interests that oppose such regulations as antibusiness [Lahsen, 2005; Oreskes and Conway, 2010].
Nierenberg and Seitz were elite scientists, but in the cause of climate skepticism they were joined by a number of activists and citizen scientists. Steven McIntyre, a retired Canadian businessman, with an educational background in mathematics and economics, in 2005 launched Climate Audit, a blog that scrutinizes climate data. McIntyre in particular attacked the validity of the reconstruction of the Earth's temperature over the last 1000years by climatologist Michael Mann. Called the hockey stick graph, the graphic reconstruction shows a steady but slow decline in temperature until 1900, and a steep rise thereafter. The controversy was long and bitter, and drew in many parties, including the US National Academy of Sciences and the US Congress. To date, the hockey stick has been confirmed by a number of subsequent temperature reconstructions [Edwards, 2010].
Environmental Risks
Y. Chen, G. Pryce, in International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home, 2012
Abstract
Global warming is likely to increase precipitation and storminess in many parts of the world. It is also likely to raise sea levels and distort regional weather patterns. At the same time, urbanisation may increase drainage problems and cause some areas to become more vulnerable to subsidence. Because the costs of flood defence rise disproportionately with the height of barriers, comprehensive flood protection will not be viable in many areas. Climate migration and temporary displacement of flooded populations will pose major challenges for housing systems. Encouraging individuals to take responsibility for their own flood resilience has so far proved problematic. Planners face the difficult task of identifying and managing optimal changes to land use patterns in the light of uncertain flood risk estimates, making sense of house price signals, and providing appropriate incentives for firms and households. House prices are important because of their impact on personal and institutional financial stability and as a potential measure of welfare loss. However, decision-makers need to be clear about the meaning of economic loss, and the potential pitfalls associated with employing hedonic house price analysis to estimate the impact on human well-being.
Reducing Vehicle Emissions Through Cap-and-Trade Schemes
John German, in Driving Climate Change, 2007
Publisher Summary
Global warming is a worldwide problem that is growing in importance. Carbon released during fossil fuel burning is the primary contributor to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions, and cap-and-trade programs are actively being developed worldwide to provide a sound economic framework for reducing carbon emissions. Encouraged by the past success of emissions trading programs, many energy and environmental specialists are looking to implement carbon trading across all carbon sectors. Most of these plans implicitly assume that motor vehicles can easily be incorporated into the global cap-and-trade programs that already exist for other energy sectors. Upstream trading reduces emissions via two mechanisms: emissions can be reduced as a direct result of the allocation of emission allowances, and direct activities to reduce emissions on the part of fuel producers can reduce fuel demand by increasing the cost of fuel production. The advantage of upstream trading systems is that administration is simplified because of the relatively small number of regulated firms in the upstream industry. Upstream trading schemes have low administrative costs, but they promise little direct reduction of motor vehicle fuel consumption. Downstream trading schemes shift the responsibility for carbon emissions from fuel producers to vehicle owners or operators.
Climate Change and Sustainable Development
Hongtu Zhao, in The Economics and Politics of China's Energy Security Transition, 2019
Expanding Global Climate Change Consensus
Global warming, only one of the challenges mankind is facing, cannot only be used to summarize all the issues of climate change but also cannot represent all the environmental issues. At present, the international community, to some extent, deifies climate change, exaggerating its threats and ignoring other environmental and global issues. The New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman proposes that the word global weirding should be used instead of the word global warming and that the rise in global temperature and climate change should be described by variation [13]. Dennis Meadows believes that the worlds understanding of global climate change is still very limited. Global warming cannot sufficiently describe the global climate problem, the essence of which is that human beings always pursue unlimited development with limited resources on the earth.
The Copenhagen Consensus Center, led by Bjorn Lomborg, conducted a study which proposes a hypothesis that how $50 billion should be spent to maximize the benefits for humanity. In the last 17 proposals, AIDS, food subsidies for women and children, and malaria control are ranked in the top 3, while Kyoto Protocol is ranked the 16th. The study argues that the cost of Kyoto Protocol would far outweigh its benefits and its implementation would cost at least $150 billion a year. The United Nations Children's Fund estimates that only $70$80 billion a year would be enough to allow residents of all Third World countries to get the most basic clean water, sanitation, basic health care, and education.
In response to global environmental problems, developed and developing countries should strive to eliminate their cognitive differences and jointly promote global environmental governance and related technical cooperation. Because of the different stages of economic development, there are many cognitive differences and misunderstandings between developing countries and developed countries on climate change. In developing countries, some analysts argue that there is a plot behind the theory of climate change, that is, to prevent developing countries from continuing to develop. Some analysts also argue that it is a scheme for some interest groups to seek benefits as well as some scientists to secure more funding. In fact, the developed countries attach great importance to environmental protection mainly out of consideration of their own sustainable development. These countries have developed to the post-industrialization stage, which not only have a strong demand and desire to improve environmental quality but also have adequate economic and institutional guarantees. The developed countries have urged the major developing countries to reduce their emissions, to some extent, to avoid free riding of developing countries, which is a manifestation of international political economy and diplomatic game. If it only boils down to the plot of some countries, it is detrimental to not only the solution of climate change but also to the sustainable development of developing countries themselves.
Similarly, for developed countries, to understand the relation between the stage of economic development and the concept of sustainable development is also necessary for narrowing the cognitive differences and understanding the position of developing countries. The World Bank proposes that although human beings have jeopardized the environment in the early stages of economic growth, they should be constructive in the later stages. Environmental awareness in many countries has been highlighted with the economic growth of the country, and the increase of social wealth and technological progress have greatly enhanced the environmental governance capacity of various countries. The primitive humans did not live in harmony with nature as we imagined but develop natural resources in a nonsustainable way. In todays world, many poor people are also to a large extent carrying out slash-and-burn farming, using wood for cooking and heating and killing endangered wildlife [14]. Therefore, the environmental issue is essentially a development issue as well, and the anticipation of the developed countries for developing countries to reduce emissions should be compatible with the development stage and environmental governance capacity.
At present, the existing climate policies in many countries are more based on considerations of energy security and economic growth, and the importance and the urgency of combating climate change has not yet become the core of their climate policies. The climate change bill, American Clean Energy and Security Act, that Obama strongly advocated after he took office, was opposed by many members of the Senate. In the Republican camp, initially there are some individual supports, but their main consideration is not to push the United States to respond to climate change but to respond to clean energy competitions and challenges from the countries such as China. And after they gave up their supports, Obamas climate change bill was naturally doomed to fail.
To make importance and urgency of climate change become a core pillar of all countries climate policy and safeguard the sustainability of climate policy, it is vital to proceed from expanding consensus on climate change. Countries in the world should objectively and rationally popularize the severity and harmfulness of climate change, avoiding absoluteness and subjectivism and allowing doubts about mainstream views. In the short term, this may cause some peoples concern and support for climate change to decline, but it will help reduce the blindness and one-sidedness in the international community in researching and coping with climate change in the long run and make relevant climate policies become more rational costbenefit analysis rather than fear of the exaggerated dangers and even end of the world.
Why discuss the impacts of climate change?
Trevor M. Letcher, in The Impacts of Climate Change, 2021
9 How global warming affects society
Global warming affects societies in many ways. Here below are a few examples:
Reduces the area available for farming and for human occupation through droughts, floods, and climate change resulting in food shortages.
Sea level rises result in a loss of housing and farmland which in turn involves human migration, and expensive new housing/buildings.
Risk of life increases and insurance premiums riseall insurers suffer.
Need rapid development of renewable energy to replace fossil fuel.
Pressure on industry to improve efficiencies, leading to more expensive products.
Health suffers in many ways. For example, malaria becomes more widespread as a small rise in temperature results in a large vectoral capacity of mosquitoes [development of anopheles is shorter, bites by females increases as gonadotrophic cycle is shortened, incubation period of plasmodium decreases].
Heat waves kill. It has been estimated that the heatwave in Europe, in 2003, with temperatures of over 45°C, killed 70,000 people. In France, the number of heatwaves has doubled over the past 40years and is expected to double again by 2050.
Economicseverything costs moreelectric car, electricity, imported food, insurance, need more air conditioning.
Wild firesloss of homes, loss of habitat for animals and wild animals.
Rise in extreme weather patterns [flooding, gales, droughts, too hot, too cold] reduce time for working.
Flooding low lying areas of the world causes a loss of infrastructure and housing.
Increased tropical typhoons and hurricanes leading to loss of life, housing and occupations.
Droughtscauses of starvation, food shortages, loss of occupation, start of warscatalyst for unrest in Syria, civil war and human migration, refugees, droughts are reputed to be the most expensive weather-related disasters;
Mental anguish as a result.
Rural Social Work
Margaret Alston, in International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences [Second Edition], 2015
Critical Factors Climate Uncertainty andGlobalization
Global warming is having an unprecedented impact on our environment, landscape, and social spaces and cuts deeply into rural areas. Slow onset events such as drought and rising temperatures affect cropping cycles, the types of crops that can be grown, the capacity of farmers to produce an income, and both food and water security [Garnaut, 2008, 2011]. Cataclysmic events such as cyclones, fires, and floods cause deaths and injuries, decimate communities, affect agricultural and fishing industries, destroy infrastructure and income generating activity, and change the landscape, often irrevocably [Opdam etal., 2009; Campbell, 2008; Proudley, 2008].
Across the world, the increasing frequency and intensity of climate and environmental disasters are deeply affecting rural people and places. A range of recent disasters causing major social trauma include flooding in the Philippines [Tatlonghari and Paris, 2012], bushfires in Australia [Hargreaves, 2012; Proudley, 2008], drought and cyclones in Bangladesh [Alston, 2013], hurricanes in the US [Enarson, 2009], rising sea levels in the Pacific [Alston and Vize, 2010], and earthquakes in Japan [Barusch, 2011] and New Zealand [Lynch, 2011]. Many of these events are located in rural areas where whole communities are affected by trauma and tragedy. Social workers should note that climate change is not only causing environmental disasters, but also immense social distress and thus is a human rights issue [Tester, 2012].
Climate change events are but one of a suite of social, economic, and environmental factors that will impact on food producing areas. With the world population expected to rise from 7 thousand to 9thousand million by 2040 [The United Nations Secretary General's High-level Panel on Global Security, 2012], creating significant consequences for food and water security; a growing middle class in Asia and the subcontinent placing more pressure on food production [Gillard, 2012]; predicted fuel shortages [Newman etal., 2009]; conflict and political instability in many areas; and massive people movements resulting from these factors [McAdam, 2012], the stresses on the environment and on people in rural areas are magnified. By 2030, the world will need at least 50% more food, 45% more energy, and 30% more water despite the fact that food production cycles are interrupted by climate events [The United Nations Secretary General's High-level Panel on Global Security, 2012]. Rural spaces will become the locusofmajor transformations, instability, and ongoing environmental pressures at the same time as the world requires significantly more food and water resources.
Globalization, or the instigation of a global marketplace creating global interdependencies, is drawing wealth and capacity from the local to the global arena [Gray and Lawrence, 2001]. In the process, it is providing a compelling influence for people to move to cities to work, often in jobs based on the knowledge economy. Globalization has resulted in significant changes in rural areas as agricultural producers are now dependent on a world market, their income subject to global circumstances and their capacity to respond to higher productivity demands diminished [Lawrence, 2005]. Without adequate policies and programs, communities plagued by poverty, climate challenges, and out-migration pressures are ill-equipped to address future uncertainties.
Part of the problem is that there are limited attempts to create complex interlinked rural policies that cross-portfolio areas. Thus, it would seem evident that enhanced information technology will assist health delivery in isolated areas with low levels of services. Yet, in Australia at least, many areas are without mobile phone coverage and significant portions of rural Australia are not covered by technology that will assist service delivery. Additionally, with the centralization of services away from rural areas it would seem obvious that cheap, readily available transport is necessary to ensure that access is not corrupted by distance. Again, this is not the case, leaving the impression that, as the political influence of these areas decline, rural communities are abandoned and the citizenship rights of rural people are overlooked under the banner of efficiency and neoliberal economic philosophy.